Loan modifications and risk of default: a Markov chains approach

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and ManagementWith the housing crisis, credit risk analysis has had an exponentially increasing importance, since it is a key tool for banks’ credit risk management, as well as being of great relevance for rigorous regulation. Credit scoring models that rely on logistic regression have been the most widely applied to evaluate credit risk, more specifically to analyze the probability of default of a borrower when a credit contract initiates. However, these methods have some limitations, such as the inability to model the entire probabilistic structure of a process, namely, the life of a mortgage, since they essentially focus on binary outcomes. Thus, there is a weakness regarding the analysis and characterization of the behavior of borrowers over time and, consequently, a disregard of the multiple loan outcomes and the various transitions a borrower may face. Therefore, it hampers the understanding of the recurrence of risk events. A discrete-time Markov chain model is applied in order to overcome these limitations. Several states and transitions are considered with the purpose of perceiving a borrower’s behavior and estimating his default risk before and after some modifications are made, along with the determinants of post-modification mortgage outcomes. Mortgages loans are considered in order to take a reasonable timeline towards a proper assessment of different loan performances. In addition to analyzing the impact of modifications, this work aims to identify and evaluate the main risk factors among borrowers that justify transitions to default states and different loan outcomes

Efeito do nemátode do pinheiro no módulo de elasticidade da madeira de pinheiro-bravo

Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de AgronomiaThe goal of this work was to study the effect of pinewood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, in the mechanical properties of maritime pine wood, Pinus pinaster, assessed by the modulus of elasticity in bending (MOE) and wood density in boards of sound wood, naturally infected wood and artificially inoculated wood. Each treatment was characterized regarding PWN degree of infection, considering its number per unit of dry weight, studied for a period of three months of infection evolution. The average of PWN in the 15 studied boards of infected wood was, in sapwood, 49,45±57,99 MNP/g dw, with no PWN detected at heartwood. Sound wood inoculation was not very successful, as only 33 % of the number of boards was actually infected, with a μ ± sd of 7,91±14,85 MNP/g dw. There were significant differences between the density of the sound or inoculated woods, 0,54 g/cm3, and the infected wood, 0,63 g/cm3. Nevertheless, no significant differences were found between the average MOE of sound wood, 7 100 MPa, and infected wood, 7 451 MPa, nor between the ones of sound or inoculated, 6 825 MPa. Therefore, there is no evidence, that the infection with PWN affects the MOE of maritime pine woo

Mobilidade estudantil europeia e aprendizagem intercultural numa Universidade portuguesa

Doutoramento em EducaçãoThe purpose of this study is to understand, impact and evaluate the development of intercultural communicative competencies among European credit-seeking exchange students and other sojourners through purposeful intercultural pedagogy. This pedagogy encompasses intentional intercultural- educational approaches which aim to support and enhance sojourners’ intercultural learning throughout the study abroad cycle (pre-departure, in-country and reentry phases). To test and validate these pedagogies a 20-hour intervention was designed and implemented among two cohorts of 31 sojourners during the in-country phase of their sojourn in Portugal. The process to develop and validate the intercultural intervention was driven by a mixed-methods methodology which combined quantitative and qualitative data to triangulate, complement and expand research results from a pragmatic stance. The mixed methods research design adopted is multi-phased and encompasses a multi-case study and an evaluative component. The multi-case component is embodied by sojourner cohorts: (1) the primary case study involves 19 incoming students at the University of Aveiro (Portugal) as participants in the European exchange program Campus Europae; (2) the second case study comprises three incoming Erasmus students and nine highly skilled immigrants at the same university. All 31 sojourners attended two intermediate Portuguese as Foreign Language classrooms where the intervention was employed. Data collection was extensive and involved collecting, analyzing and mixing quantitative and qualitative strands across four research phases. These phases refer to the: (1) development, (2) implementation and (3) evaluation of the intervention, as well as to (4) a stakeholder analysis of the external value of the intervention and of the Campus Europae program. Data collection instruments included pre and posttest questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Results confirm the intercultural effectiveness of the intervention and the positive impact upon research participants’ intercultural gains. This impact was, however, greater in case study 2. Among explanatory variables, three stand out: (1) participant meaning-making abilities, (2) host language proficiency and related variables, and (3) type of sojourn or exchange programs. Implications for further research highlight the need to systematize purposeful intercultural pedagogy in sojourner populations in general, and in European credit student mobility in particular. In the latter case, these pedagogies should be part of the design and delivery of credit-bearing exchange programs in pre- departure, in-country and re-entry phases. Implications for practice point to the urge to improve intercultural practices in: macro (higher education institutions), mezzo (exchange programs) and micro (sojourner language classrooms) contexts where this research took place, and wider social scenarios they represent.O propósito deste estudo é compreender, intervir e avaliar o desenvolvimento de competências de comunicação intercultural de estudantes de intercâmbio europeus com vista à aquisição de créditos e de outros sujeitos em contexto de imersão, através de uma pedagogia intercultural propositiva. Este tipo de pedagogia representa abordagens pedagógico-interculturais que visam auxiliar e otimizar a aprendizagem intercultural destes sujeitos durante o ciclo de intercâmbio (fase prévia à partida, durante o intercâmbio e na reentrada). De forma a testar e validar estas pedagogias, uma intervenção com a duração de 20 horas foi desenhada e implementada em dois coortes de 31 sujeitos durante sua imersão em Portugal. O processo de desenvolvimento e validação da intervenção intercultural foi guiado por uma metodologia mista que combina dados quantitativos e qualitativos para triangular, complementar e expandir os resultados investigativos a partir de uma instância pragmática. O desenho de investigação misto adotado é multifaseado e integra uma componente de estudo de caso-múltiplo e de avaliação. A componente de estudo de caso-múltiplo é corporizada pelos dois coortes de sujeitos em imersão: (1) o principal estudo de caso integra 19 estudantes recebidos pela Universidade de Aveiro (Portugal) enquanto participantes no programa de intercâmbio Europeu Campus Europae; (2) o segundo estudo de caso integra três estudantes Erasmus e nove imigrantes altamente qualificados recebidos pela mesma universidade. Todos os 31 sujeitos frequentaram duas salas aulas de Português Língua Estrangeira, onde a intervenção foi implementada. A recolha de dados foi extensiva e compreendeu a recolha, análise e integração de dados quantitativos e qualitativos ao longo de quatro fases de investigação. Estas fases referem-se ao: (1) desenvolvimento, (2) implementação e (3) avaliação, bem como a (4) uma análise das perceções de stakeholders com o intuito de compreender o valor externo da intervenção e do programa Campus Europae. Os instrumentos de recolha de dados incluíram inquéritos por questionário antes e após a intervenção e entrevistas semi- estruturadas. Os resultados confirmam a eficácia intercultural da intervenção e um impacto positivo nos ganhos interculturais dos participantes. Este impacto foi, no entanto, maior no estudo de caso 2. Entre as variáveis explanatórias, três destacam-se: (1) as capacidades de construção-de-significado dos participantes, (2) a proficiência na língua de acolhimento e varáveis associadas e (3) o tipo de imersão e programas de intercâmbio. Implicações para investigações futuras salientam a necessidade de sistematizar uma pedagogia intercultural propositiva em poluções em imersão, no geral, e na mobilidade europeia estudantil de crédito, em particular. No último caso, estas pedagogias deverão ser parte do desenho e implementação de programas de intercâmbio de crédito na fase prévia à partida, durante o intercâmbio e na reentrada. As implicações de teor prático salientam a premência de melhorar as práticas interculturais nos contextos macro (instituições de ensino superior), meso (programas de mobilidade) e micro (aulas de língua para sujeitos em imersão) onde esta investigação decorreu, bem nos cenários sociais alargados que estes contextos representam

Estudo do fluxo embalagens de madeira

A madeira é um importante recurso renovável e com uma enorme variedade de aplicações que vão desde a embalagem, à construção, ao mobiliário, entre outras aplicações diversas. Os produtos em madeira, após o seu primeiro ciclo de vida, continuam a ter valor e poderão ter fins diversos, tais como a reutilização, a reciclagem ou a produção de energia. A escolha do destino a dar a esta madeira recuperável deverá basear-se na qualidade do material em causa, existindo formas de classificação segundo o grau de contaminação do material. Tendo em consideração que a produção de madeira recuperável ocorre nas mais diversas actividades humanas, desde as individuais, e de forma bastante dispersa, àquelas desenvolvidas pela indústria, torna-se extremamente difícil conhecer as quantidades totais disponíveis deste material, e assim, definir modelos de gestão eficazes para este material. O objectivo deste trabalho é tentar compilar a informação existente no que concerne à disponibilidade de madeira recuperável em Portugal, acabando por se particularizar no fluxo de embalagens de madeira, aplicando uma metodologia de cálculo para este material. Os resultados obtidos terão uma margem de erro associada à utilização de alguns pressupostos, de estudos anteriores, e no futuro deverá ser verificada a sua concordância com a realidade da gestão destes resíduos em Portugal

Sexualidade e envelhecimento : atitudes e comportamento sexual no idoso

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto UniversitárioNeste estudo pretende-se perceber a relação entre atitudes e comportamento sexual no idoso e examinar as diferenças de género quanto ao comportamento e atitudes sexuais. É também objectivo deste estudo explorar a associação\relação entre as variáveis comportamento sexual e algumas socio-demográficas como a escolaridade e o estado cívil. Este estudo é exploratório, de tipo correlacional, uma vez que o objectivo do mesmo é explorar a associação entre variáveis. Participaram neste estudo 215 idosos com idades compreendidas entre os 64 e os 91 anos numa amostra não probabilística de conveniência obtida pelo sistema bola de neve. O material utilizado foi um questionário sócio-demográfico e um Questionário de Atitudes e Comportamentos Sexuais, ambos construídos para o efeito. Os resultados demonstram a existência de associação entre atitudes e comportamentos sexuais no idoso. Verifica-se que os homens apresentam maior comunhão, são mais permissivos, mais instrumentalistas e são mais activos sexualmente do que as mulheres. Não se comprova que um elevado nível de escolaridade está fortemente associado a uma vida sexual activa. Comprova-se, ainda, que a falta de parceiro é um factor impeditivo à actividade e interesse sexual.ABSTRACT: elderly and to examine gender differences regarding sexual behavior and attitudes. It is also a goal of this study to explore the association between sexual behavior and some sociodemographic variables such as education and marital status. This study is exploratory and correlational type, since the aim is to explore the association between variables. Were participants in this study 215 elderly aged between 64 and 91 years in a non-probability convenience sample obtained by the system snowball. The material used was a sociodemographic questionnaire and a Sexual Attitudes and Behaviors questionnaire, both developed for the purpose. The results prove the existence of an association between attitudes and sexual behaviors in the elderly. It appears that men have greater communion, are more permissive, more instrumentalists and are more sexually active than women. There is no evidence that a high level of education is strongly associated with an active sex life. It has been clarified yet, the lack of a partner is a factor preventing them from sexual activity and interest

Treatment-resistant depression and major depression with suicide risk — the cost of illness and burden of disease

Introduction: Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD) and Major Depression with Suicide Risk (MDSR) are types of depression with relevant effects on the health of the population and a potentially significant economic impact. This study estimates the burden of disease and the costs of illness attributed to Treatment-Resistant Depression and Major Depression with Suicide Risk in Portugal. Methods: The disease burden for adults was quantified in 2017 using the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost. Direct costs related to the health care system and indirect costs were estimated for 2017, with indirect costs resulting from the reduction in productivity. Estimates were based on multiple sources of information, including the National Epidemiological Study on Mental Health, the Hospital Morbidity Database, data from the Portuguese National Statistics Institute on population and causes of death, official data on wages, statistics on the pharmaceutical market, and qualified opinions of experts. Results: The estimated prevalence of TRD, MDSR, and both types of depression combined was 79.4 thousand, 52.5 thousand, and 11.3 thousand patients, respectively. The disease burden (DALY) due to the disability generated by TRD alone, MDSR alone, and the joint prevalence was 25.2 thousand, 21 thousand, and 4.5 thousand, respectively, totaling 50.7 thousand DALYs. The disease burden due to premature death by suicide was 15.6 thousand DALYs. The estimated total disease burden was 66.3 thousand DALYs. In 2017, the annual direct costs with TRD and MDSR were estimated at € 30.8 million, with the most important components being medical appointments and medication. The estimated indirect costs were much higher than the direct costs. Adding work productivity losses due to reduced employment, absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature death, a total cost of € 1.1 billion was obtained. Conclusions: Although TRD and MDSR represent relatively small direct costs for the health system, they have a relevant disease burden and extremely substantial productivity costs for the Portuguese economy and society, making TRD and MDSR priority areas for achieving health gains.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Bridging the gap between conceptualisation & assessment of intercultural competence

This paper aims at deconstructing the intercultural competence assessment task by building a coherent framework to assess the IC of incoming Campus Europae students at the University of Aveiro in 2011/12. Our discussion focuses on pre/post-test design survey techniques, by reflecting upon the process of moving from the first to the improved final versio

Portuguese propolis: a source of valuable bioactivities

To FEDER/COMPETE/POCI– Operational Competitiveness and Internationalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033/2013

Identification of clusters of asthma control: A preliminary analysis of the inspirers studies

This work was funded by ERDF (European Regional Development Fund) through the operations: POCI- -01-0145-FEDER-029130 (“mINSPIRERS—mHealth to measure and improve adherence to medication in chronic obstructive respiratory diseases - generalisation and evaluation of gamification, peer support and advanced image processing technologies”) co-funded by the COMPETE2020 (Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalização), Portugal 2020 and by Portuguese Funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia).© 2020, Sociedade Portuguesa de Alergologia e Imunologia Clinica. All rights reserved. Aims: To identify distinct asthma control clusters based on Control of Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Test (CARAT) and to compare patients’ characteristics among these clusters. Methods: Adults and adolescents (≥13 years) with persistent asthma were recruited at 29 Portuguese hospital outpatient clinics, in the context of two observational studies of the INSPIRERS project. Demographic and clinical characteristics, adherence to inhaled medication, beliefs about inhaled medication, anxiety and depression, quality of life, and asthma control (CARAT, >24 good control) were collected. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed using CARAT total score (CARAT-T). Results: 410 patients (68% adults), with a median (percentile 25–percentile 75) age of 28 (16-46) years, were analysed. Three clusters were identified [mean CARAT-T (min-max)]: cluster 1 [27(24-30)], cluster 2 [19(14-23)] and cluster 3 [10(2-13)]. Patients in cluster 1 (34%) were characterised by better asthma control, better quality of life, higher inhaler adherence and use of a single inhaler. Patients in clusters 2 (50%) and 3 (16%) had uncontrolled asthma, lower inhaler adherence, more symptoms of anxiety and depression and more than half had at least one exacerbation in the previous year. Further-more, patients in cluster 3 were predominantly female, had more unscheduled medical visits and more anxiety symp-toms, perceived a higher necessity of their prescribed inhalers but also higher levels of concern about taking these inhalers. There were no differences in age, body mass index, lung function, smoking status, hospital admissions or specialist physician follow-up time among the three clusters. Conclusion: An unsupervised method based on CARAT--T, identified 3 clusters of patients with distinct, clinically meaningful characteristics. The cluster with better asthma control had a cut-off similar to the established in the validation study of CARAT and an additional cut-off seems to distinguish more severe disease. Further research is necessary to validate the asthma control clusters identified.publishersversionpublishe

Terrestrial behavior in titi monkeys (Callicebus, Cheracebus, and Plecturocebus) : potential correlates, patterns, and differences between genera

For arboreal primates, ground use may increase dispersal opportunities, tolerance to habitat change, access to ground-based resources, and resilience to human disturbances, and so has conservation implications. We collated published and unpublished data from 86 studies across 65 localities to assess titi monkey (Callicebinae) terrestriality. We examined whether the frequency of terrestrial activity correlated with study duration (a proxy for sampling effort), rainfall level (a proxy for food availability seasonality), and forest height (a proxy for vertical niche dimension). Terrestrial activity was recorded frequently for Callicebus and Plecturocebus spp., but rarely for Cheracebus spp. Terrestrial resting, anti-predator behavior, geophagy, and playing frequencies in Callicebus and Plecturocebus spp., but feeding and moving differed. Callicebus spp. often ate or searched for new leaves terrestrially. Plecturocebus spp. descended primarily to ingest terrestrial invertebrates and soil. Study duration correlated positively and rainfall level negatively with terrestrial activity. Though differences in sampling effort and methods limited comparisons and interpretation, overall, titi monkeys commonly engaged in a variety of terrestrial activities. Terrestrial behavior in Callicebus and Plecturocebus capacities may bolster resistance to habitat fragmentation. However, it is uncertain if the low frequency of terrestriality recorded for Cheracebus spp. is a genus-specific trait associated with a more basal phylogenetic position, or because studies of this genus occurred in pristine habitats. Observations of terrestrial behavior increased with increasing sampling effort and decreasing food availability. Overall, we found a high frequency of terrestrial behavior in titi monkeys, unlike that observed in other pitheciids